The Athletic’s Jacob Robinson has released his win projections for the 2025 NFL season, and he is predicting a major bounce-back year for the Detroit Lions. Robinson projects the Lions to finish 12-5, which would mark a significant recovery after the team collapsed from a 15-2 record in 2023 to a 9-8 finish and last place in the NFC North last season. Robinson’s reasoning centers on the fact that Detroit is projected to have the league’s easiest schedule due to their last-place finish. He also cites the talent on both sides of the ball, calling the Lions his “dark horse Super Bowl pick.
” The prediction has sparked debate among analysts about whether Detroit is truly the team to beat in the division. While the projection is lofty, it comes with significant caveats. The team is entering the season with a new offensive coordinator, Drew Petzing, who replaces John Morton. Morton lasted only one season after taking over for Ben Johnson, who left to become the head coach of the Chicago Bears.
Petzing brings substantial experience, entering his 14th NFL season, including the last three years as offensive coordinator for the Arizona Cardinals. Petzing has previously operated a high-volume passing offense, but he faces the challenge of working with a reshaped offensive line. The most pressing concern is the center position. Detroit made a targeted free-agent signing to shore up the interior, but that player is now dealing with an injury, leaving uncertainty about his availability.
Analysts note that interior pressure is particularly problematic for quarterback Jared Goff, who lacks the mobility to escape cleanly when protection breaks down. The offensive line, once the identity of the team, is undergoing significant changes. All-Pro right tackle Penei Sewell is moving to the opposite side of the line. There is open competition at guard, and a rookie is expected to take over at right tackle.
This instability represents a departure from the rock-solid unit that anchored the team’s success two seasons ago, and some analysts argue the team has not sufficiently addressed the turnover along the line. Despite these questions, the Lions still have considerable firepower. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs is expected to have a career year, as he no longer has to split carries with David Montgomery. Analysts point to Gibbs’ versatility, noting that he can line up in the backfield or in the slot, creating matchup problems that most defenses cannot solve.
When Goff is protected, he performs like a top-ten quarterback. The division race is expected to be tight, though schedule strength may play a decisive role. The Lions have the easiest schedule in the NFL, while the Green Bay Packers face the ninth-hardest and the Chicago Bears face the seventh-hardest. This gives Detroit a clear path to the division title, but analysts stress that an easy schedule only matters if the team’s foundation holds up.
The Chicago Bears remain the wild card in the division. They have added Ben Johnson as head coach and possess a roster full of talent, but questions persist about quarterback Caleb Williams. While Williams showed an ability to avoid turnovers last season, some analysts question his decision-making, specifically whether he knows when to throw the ball away versus attempting to extend plays with his athleticism. Others point out that the narrative around Williams and Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is drastically different, despite similar hero-ball tendencies early in their careers.
Ultimately, the consensus is that Detroit is the safest pick to win the NFC North. The combination of Goff’s consistency, Gibbs’ explosiveness, and the league’s easiest schedule makes a 12-5 season plausible. However, the Super Bowl conversation may be premature. The team’s ceiling depends almost entirely on whether the interior offensive line can stay healthy and functional.
If the center position becomes a liability, it could undermine the entire offensive rhythm and derail the season before it gains momentum.
